Peter Schiff has been saying that even though the stock market is on a slow downward slide, the biggest problem is actually in the bond market. Last week, Schiff warned us to be wary of the calm before the storm, and this week, he said most, including the Federal Reserve, are oblivious to the upcoming crash.
Yields have risen to levels not seen since before the 2008 crash. More significantly, the yield curve is flattening, according to Schiff.
According to Seeking Alpha, Schiff pointed out, if you go back to the Second World War and look at average bond yields, these low rates are an aberration. They’ve been low for a long time, but they aren’t going to stay low forever. And yet the market seems to think it’s going to go on for another 30 years.
“Clearly, the market assumes that interest rates on 10-year government bonds are going to stay just barely over 3% for the next 20 or 30 years. I mean, that is crazy. Why would anybody think that?”
Just consider the deficits as well. The federal government is running $100 billion per month budget deficits – and this is during a supposed economic expansion. What’s going to happen when we hit a recession? And of course, rising interest rates just compound the problem. As Treasuries come due, the government has to replace them with higher interest rate bonds. This expands the deficit even further.
Also compounding the problem is the money printing scheme the Federal Reserve has taken to. Why in the world would any rational person assume inflation will remain low?
We also have interest rates at around 3% and there is already some hand wringing and nervousness. But as Peter said, they could easily blow through four or even 5%. The Fed keeps saying it plans to reduce its balance sheet, but it hasn’t sold very many bonds to date. What happens if they follow through with tightening plans and start dumping bonds on the market?
If [the Fed] continues to stay on this path, or at least the rhetoric is on this path, rates could blow through 3% like a hot knife through butter.”
Schiff then discussed Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who said they [the elite globalists that run the Federal Reserve] can’t find any signs of an impending crisis. He said there are no warning signs at all.
“Well, of course, that’s exactly what they said in 2007 and 2008. In fact, even when there was the mother of all warning signs – the crash of the subprime market – the Fed looked at that and said, ‘That’s nothing. It’s contained.’ We’re not worried about that.’ So the Fed has already proved when it comes to warning signs and seeing them in advance, they’re like Mr. Magoo. They have no idea what’s going on. And in fact, just like Mr. Magoo, they create all kinds of havoc all around them as they blindly move through the economy having no idea what’s going on, and there’s just all kinds of carnage.We are headed for a massive financial crisis.”
Schiff has yet to change his mind: we are headed for some major problems in the economy and most are unaware and unprepared.
Original Source: ZeroHedge